According to TV exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance, under the leadership of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to secure a significant majority in the recently concluded general election. This outcome surpasses the expectations of most analysts.
The exit polls indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to achieve a two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament, which consists of 543 members. A simple majority of 272 seats is required for the government to hold power. With a two-thirds majority, the government would have the ability to introduce substantial amendments to the constitution.
According to six exit polls, the NDA is projected to secure a victory with an estimated range of 355 to 380 seats. This outcome is expected to have a positive impact on the financial markets when they reopen on Monday. In the previous general election held in 2019, the NDA won a total of 353 seats, with the BJP accounting for 303 of them.
The opposition alliance, known as “INDIA” and led by the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, was predicted to secure a range of 125 to 165 seats in the elections.
In his first comments after voting ended, Modi claimed victory without referring to the exit polls.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said on X, without providing evidence of his claim.
“The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt.”
Exit polls in India, carried out by polling agencies, have a spotty track record. They frequently fail to accurately predict the outcome, leading analysts to suggest that it is difficult to get them right in such a vast and diverse country.
Pre-election surveys indicated that the BJP would effortlessly maintain its majority in the upcoming election. However, the party faced a spirited campaign from the “INDIA” alliance, which raised some uncertainty about the competitiveness of the race. Numerous political analysts had anticipated that the BJP’s margin of victory would either be narrower than or similar to the tally from 2019.
The opposition disregarded the exit polls, referring to them as “prearranged”. Many opposition parties claim that India’s primary news channels are biased towards Modi, an allegation that the channels refute. They also argue that exit polls in India lack scientific credibility.
“This is a government exit poll, this is Narendra Modi’s exit poll,” Supriya Shrinate, the Congress’s social media head, told news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake.
“We have a sense of how many seats we are winning, it will not be one seat less than 259,” she said.
‘Uncertainty lifted’
Nearly one billion individuals had the opportunity to cast their votes during the seven-phase election, which commenced on April 19 and took place in sweltering summer conditions across various regions.
Vote counting by the Election Commission is scheduled for June 4, with the results anticipated on the same day.
If Modi, aged 73, emerges victorious, he will become the second prime minister, following in the footsteps of independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru, to secure three successive terms.
Modi commenced his bid for re-election by highlighting his accomplishments during the past decade, but swiftly transitioned to predominantly directing his criticism towards the Congress party. He accused them of showing bias towards India’s minority Muslims, an allegation that the opposition party vehemently refutes.
The opposition’s primary focus has been on advocating for affirmative action initiatives and safeguarding the constitution against what they perceive as Modi’s authoritarian leadership. The BJP, however, refutes these allegations of dictatorial rule.
Surveys have indicated that unemployment and inflation are the primary worries for voters in the predominantly Hindu nation with a population of 1.4 billion.
According to market analysts, the exit polls have alleviated any uncertainty surrounding the anticipated outcome and have indicated the continuation of Modi’s growth-oriented economic strategies.
“The exit poll findings, signaling a decisive win for the NDA with approximately 360 seats, effectively alleviate the alleged apprehension surrounding the elections that had been impacting the market throughout May,” stated VK Vijayakumar, Geojit Financial Services’ Chief Investment Strategist.
“He mentioned that this will act as a boost for the optimistic investors who are likely to initiate a significant surge in the market when Monday arrives.”
